Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of North Carolina and South Carolina Monday. The main thread will be damaging wind and hail but an isolated tornado or two cannot be rolled out. It is certainly a day you need to be weather ready!
At a glance:
Impacted areas: ENHANCED RISK (3 out of 5) for the Upstate of South Carolina. SLIGHT RISK (2 out of 5) for the Southern Piedmont of North Carolina, as well as the Midlands of South Carolina. MARGINAL RISK (1 out of 5) for the Interstate 40 corridor, Central and Eastern North Carolina, as well as the Coastal Plain of South Carolina.
Timing: Two rounds of storms. First round moves through between 11 am - 1 pm, then the second round moves through from 3 pm - 7 pm.
Types of severe weather: All modes of severe weather are possible ( Damaging winds, large hail, flash floods, and tornadoes)
We are watching two rounds of storms. At the start of the day we will see cloudy, cool, and somewhat of a showery start. As we go throughout the morning, a warm front will move through the area bringing some warm, and moist environment.
The first round of storms will be isolated super cells. The highest potential for these supercells will be in the Midlands and Upstate of South Carolina. These discreet cells spin-up and travel out ahead of the mainline of storms.
The models are showing that once they reach the North Carolina - South Carolina state border, these storms will start to weaken. In North Carolina, locations south of Interstate 40 have the greatest potential at seeing severe weather from this first round. Those locations include nut are not limited to: Charlotte, Gastonia, Monroe, Rockingham and Lumberton.
The first round is where we are worried about the tornado threat. Tornado threat is low north of Interstate 40. As you go south of Interstate 40 is where the percentages are slightly elevated. Once the warm front moves through the area, we will wait on the second line of storms.
Not only will we have to worry about severe weather, but there could also be a flash flood threat. Anytime we see periods of heavy rainfall, we need to watch for the pooling of water. We could see the potential of up to 2" of rain in many areas.
Many parts of Western North Carolina saw upwards of 3" late last week. Grounds there may still be saturated and additional rainfall will have a hard time dissipating into the ground.