Hurricane Matthew in the central Caribbean Sea as a category four storm, as of Saturday morning. Matthew was briefly considered a category five storm late Friday when its winds topped 160 mph. By Saturday morning, winds had dropped to 155mph.
Matthew is still tracking west, parallel to the northern shore of Colombia. During its trip westward, its expected to remain at least a category three storm. Such a classification would keep it within range as a “major hurricane.”
By the end of the weekend, the storm is expected to turn north towards Jamaica, western Hispaniola and Cuba. These areas really need to be preparing for major hurricane impact. It could be a really serious situation by the start of next week.
The latest forecast track keeps it as a major hurricane as it approaches Cuba. It will then downgrade to a category two as it clears those islands and heads towards the Bahamas.
What happens from there will be of great concern to those leaving along the East Coast of the United States. As of Saturday morning, the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center predicts Matthew to strengthen again as it cruises just east of Florida.
The track guidance is uncertain at this point. We will not have a good idea where Matthew goes after Cuba until Monday or Tuesday. Some guidance takes this out to sea while some brings it closer to the Florida coast.
Beyond that it's just way too uncertain, too far out to give a definite answer.
Shea Gibson, of Carolina Weather Group and WeatherFlow, posted this video Saturday morning explaining the storms projections.