September has been the month of stubborn storms. First Tropical Storm Hermine impacted nearly ever state along the East Coast, including a several day period where it parked south of Long Island. Now Tropical Depression Julia remains nearly stationary about 285 miles from Charleston, South Carolina, as of the National Hurricane Center’s 11a et update on Saturday.
To almost everyone’s surprise, Julia gained sudden tropical storm status while spinning over Jacksonville, Florida late Monday. The storm, which accomplished a rare feat: forming over landing, has not gone far from home. For days, she’s been spinning off the waters of Savannah, Georgia.
And that’s where she remains: sitting, spinning and fitting off wind sheer.
Julia is trying to form new convective showers north of her circulation. Most newly formed showers are quickly killed off by wind shear.
Like a gambler beating on a horserace, the forecast models are giving the odds to the wind shear. Julia, who is currently classified as a tropical depression, has managed to regain her tropical storm status at least one since her initial formation. Although the odds are against her, she could again be upgraded.
“If it’s allowed to sit, as it has done here over the past 24 hours, some of the convective bursts in bands on the eastward side…, have attempted to form with greater frequency,” said Cowan. “If the shear was ever to let up for a while, we may suddenly see convection form again around this circulation. At that point it would have to be watched again for some kind of re-intensification or re-formation.”
Models do not call for that but there is at least one possibility on that table where this could happen. Cowan explains:
Cowan joined the Carolina Weather Group in February to talk about his site, the tropics and what to watch for this hurricane season.